“Can China continue to grow faster than most other countries, say, at 5% a year over the next 10-20 years? If that is the case, it is going to have a huge impact on all of us.”

CEIBS Professor of Economics and author of Catching up to America: Culture, Institutions and the Rise of China Zhu Tian debunks some common myths behind China’s economic growth.
He also argues that, when considering China’s post-pandemic economic trajectory, what matters most is the long term, not the short term.

Furthermore, Prof. Zhu points out that although consumption, investment and exports often grab the headlines, the strength of China’s long-term growth instead stems from its rapid accumulation of physical and human capital and new technologies.

Ultimately, he says, China’s comparative strength in economic development has been – and likely will continue to be – more cultural than political or tactical.

Recorded at the Innovation Forum Beijing in March 2023.

More highlights from the Innovation Forum Beijing 2023 here: https://www.ceibs.edu/media/news/events-visits/22916

More about Catching up to America here: https://www.ceibs.edu/media/news/faculty/21074

More about Prof. Zhu Tian’s teaching and research interests here: https://www.ceibs.edu/zhu_tian

00:00 Introduction
02:39 What matters the most is the long term
06:50 Can continue to grow faster than most other countries?
08:24 Debunking some popular explanations of China’s economic rise
10:16 Long-term growth vs. short-term fluctuation
12:06 Three drivers of long-term economic growth
14:36 China has the highest investment rate in the world
17:24 Consumption growth is the result of income growth
19:02 The quality of basic education sets China apart
22:22 Can China innovate?
26:46 How do you achieve technological progress?
28:15 China’s in economic development is more cultural than political or tactical
29:11 Why has China’s economic growth slowed down so much?
32:40 Geopolitics isn’t impacting trade as much as you think
35:29 Conclusion and outro